A recent forecast by Forrester Research indicates that e-commerce sales across Europe’s five largest economies—France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK—are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.8%, increasing from €389 billion in 2024 to €565 billion by 2029.
This growth is attributed to several factors, including a stronger economy, increased adoption of omnichannel strategies, better price transparency, and the expansion of cross-border marketplaces. By 2029, online sales are projected to account for nearly 21% of all retail sales across these five markets, up from 16% in 2024.
Country-Specific Projections:
- United Kingdom: Expected to lead the European e-commerce market, with online sales reaching £176 billion (€207 billion) by 2029, accounting for 32% of total retail sales.
- Germany: Online retail sales are predicted to reach €146 billion by 2029, up from €97 billion in 2024, representing 21% of total retail sales.
- France: Online sales are forecasted at €106 billion in 2029, up from €73 billion in 2024, making up 17% of total retail sales.
The report highlights that non-essential retail sales will rebound with declining inflation and improved economic conditions. Categories such as fashion and consumer electronics are expected to see renewed online growth as price-conscious consumers regain purchasing power.
Furthermore, the emergence of online shoppers and the expansion of cross-border e-commerce platforms will continue to fuel digitalization in the region. Platforms like AliExpress, SHEIN, and Temu are increasing their presence, making the Europe-5 region a global hub for marketplace-driven growth.
These projections underscore the significant opportunities for businesses to expand their online presence and cater to the evolving preferences of European consumers.